Griskus Race Plan: Getting back up

This weekend is the Northeast Regional Champs at the Pat Griskus Race in Connecticut. Regional Champs qualify more people for Nationals. In fact, the top 33% of each age group qualifies. My goal is to requalify for Nationals. I'm using this race as a gauge for how ready I am for Nationals. The race is only 600 competitors, and last year it only had 9 athletes in my age group (12 the year before). So I need to look to be in the top 3 or 4 to meet that goal.

Swim
The swim is a little long for an olympic. It's a mile. My goal pace for oly swims is 1:40 per 100. That would mean my swim goal should be 30 minutes (technically 29:20, but let's give a little leeway). I had a brilliant swim this morning at Walden, that reminded me of the joys of open water swimming. I think I should be able to push it a bit, get into a good rhythm, then shoot for a negative split in the second half.

Bike
The bike promises to be hilly. See the bike course topography below:

They warn people, particularly on that first descent, to take it easy. Not only is it steep, but it's winding. My plan is to go for safety on the downhills. I'm too much of a scaredy pants to go screaming down anyway. Then to try to push it on the uphills. Small gears, high cadence, and making sure that I don't drop power as I near the top of each hill. This course is tougher than Mooseman (the age group winner at Mooseman average 21mph, here it was 19). The 3rd place competitor last year rode it at 18. I think I can give a bit more cushion cause of my swim, so I'm thinking 17mph is a good goal. That would mean a 1 hour 28 minute goal.

Run
The run is two out-and-backs. Should be exactly 6.2 miles. That means I should be shooting for my typical 8 min miles. 50 minutes.

So:
0:30 swim
1:28 bike
0:50 run

plus 4 minutes transition = 2:52 total time. This is not going to be a PR. But hopefully enough to accomplish my goals.

Nutrition
It shouldn't be that hot (60 degrees at 7am, 70 degrees at 10am), so dehydration shouldn't be too much of an issue. Still, I want to try to stay better hydrated than I did at Mooseman, where I got a headache after the race, despite cool temps. Here's the schedule with nutrition.

• 4:30am wake up, clif bar - water (goal of 1 24oz bottle per hour, pre race)
  
• 5am leave for race
• 5:45 register/rack
• 6:10 warm up run
  
• 6:30 transition closes, warm up swim, 1 gu, 3 endurolytes
  
• 7am race starts
• 7:30 bike, gu, 12 oz heed
• 8am bike, 12 oz heed
• 8:30 bike, gu, 12 oz heed
• 9am run, gu, water on course (~6oz)
• 9:30 run, water on course (~6oz)
• 10am FINISH! 6 endurolytes